Hornets/Spurs Preview
The first thing that stands out about this series is the 10PMest start time on Saturday night for game 1. Who’s in charge of this? Was there a meeting where people sat around a table and actually thought this was the best decision? Let’s see, there’s only one other game on Saturday, New Orleans is in the Central time zone, there’s nothing on TV to compete with the game in the afternoon besides the Derby and most people watch that from 6PM to 6:04PM, people tend to leave their homes on Saturday nights…10pm it is! If anyone has any connections with the NBA scheduling committee, let them know I’m available to act as a consultant, and all I ask in return is a date with Michelle Tafoya. The only positive that can come out of this start time is that it may produce my 1st ‘DVR game and watch it after a night out drunk blog’, so we have that going for us.
Anyway, this series is very evenly matched. The Spurs main advantage is simply, that they are the Spurs, which alone makes it extremely difficult to bet against them. I believe experience in the playoffs is overrated, but the Spurs have championship experience, which is a different animal. As they showed in the Suns series, the Spurs know what to do in crucial situations (as evidenced in Game 1 when Manu took it the length of the court for the winning fg instead of calling timeout), and they always know how to get off a good shot in crunch time. The Hornets lack in these areas solely because they haven’t had to do it before. Anyone can say ‘give it to CP3 and let him make something happen’ with 10 secs left, down 1. But will the other team members know where to be, how to attack a missed shot for an offensive rebound, and will any of them actually WANT the ball to come to them in that type of situation. We don’t know the answer.
Some things to consider-
Will David West be effective offensively vs. Tim Duncan?
In the Hornets 2 wins this season vs. the Spurs, West had 32pts and 29pts. In 2 losses, he only managed 16pts and 15pts. Duncan, and the Spurs in general, take their defensive play up several notches when the playoffs arrive, and West hasn’t seen anything like it before. If West’s jumper is on, he will force Duncan to come out and play him, opening the lane for CP to penetrate, and for Tyson Chandler to have more offensive rebound opportunities (he was the league leader). West is an outstanding player, an all-star this season who has emerged as a legitimate force to be reckoned with for the next decade. However, he’s going up against a perennial All-NBA defensive team member. West’s ability to score and make Duncan work hard on the defensive end will be a major key to the series.
(I just learned that David West’s nickname is DX, which I’d like to think, is based on the old WWE crew, ‘Degeneration X’, although I’m pretty sure it’s because he went to Xavier. In any event, if West does the signature 2 hands to the crotch routine (that WWE DX made famous) and says ‘Suck It’ after a dunk, he will move into my top-5 non-Laker favorite player list immediately. Maybe top 2.)
Who will stop Manu?
Obviously no one, he’s Manu. It’s like saying who will stop LeBron. When looking at the matchups on paper, we have CP3 vs. Tony Parker and Duncan vs. West, but there seems to be no answer for Ginobili. I give you, Julian Wright. When Wright was a freshman at Kansas 2 years ago, I said to Crafty Barnardo, my partner in my fantasy basketball keeper league, ‘this guy’s going to be on our squad in a few years’. Now Wright’s rookie season was nothing to brag about, but he was unleashed in Round 1 vs. the Mavs, and became a steady bench contributor. He’s the Hornets best bet to contain Ginobili. They don’t need him to score at all, with the other offensive weapons they have, so Coach Scott should just have him shadow Manu at all times. His length and athleticism should be able to frustrate Ginobili, and hopefully take him out of his comfort zone.
Chris Paul vs. Tony Parker (and Bruce Bowen)
It’s hard to imagine two point guards playing any better than these guys did in Round 1. It seems that every May, Tony Parker reminds me what a great basketball player he is (I assume I don’t realize during the regular season because he’s not a great fantasy pg). The thing in this matchup that intrigues me the most is seeing how CP3 handles Parker defensively. Paul led the league in steals this year, but that doesn’t mean he can be a lock down man-to-man defender, so I’m curious to see if he’s able to neutralize Parker’s ridiculous offensive abilities. We already know that Parker is a limited on-ball defender, so Bruce Bowen will often get the defensive assignment of guarding Paul. How CP3 will be able to handle the questionable defensive tactics of Bowen (who will do anything and everything to try and frustrate Paul to get him off his game) will set the tone for the Hornets in this series. In addition, when Bowen is guarding Paul, whichever Hornet Parker guards will have to demand the ball, take him down to the block, and punish him.
The Bench
This is where the Hornets can win this series. Besides the big 3, and the always-steady Kurt Thomas, the Spurs’ personnel are not that great. The Brent Barry’s and Michael Finley’s and Robert Horry’s of the world shouldn’t scare anyone until the last few minutes of a tight game. Other than Parker, Duncan and Manu, no one else on their roster can generate any offense. The Hornets on the other hand, have some firepower on the pine. Jannero Pargo is a little sparkplug. We already discussed Julian Wright (they call him JuJu). Don’t forget Bonzi Wells, who torched the Spurs 2 years ago as a member of the Kings to the tune of 23pts and 12 rebs per game in the playoffs. The Hornets have a very solid 8-man rotation, any of which can score double figures on any given night. The bench’s productivity, which will give the starters some rest, will keep the Hornets with fresh, young legs on the floor at all times, potentially posing a problem for the elder Spurs.
Interesting fact: The Spurs are 15-2 in their last 17 playoff series’!! Their only 2 losses involved the Derek Fisher .04 shot and the game 7 Ginobili foul on Dirk. So, as great as the Spurs have been, we could very easily be talking about the 5 time defending champions right now. Something to think about.
So where does that leave us? Honestly, I’m not sure. I would not be surprised with any outcome in this series. Since I have to make a choice here, I say Chris Paul continues his dominance, David West and Tyson Chandler control the paint on both ends of the floor, Byron Scott validates his Coach of The Year award, and the New Orleans crowd is a factor.
Hornets win 4-3.